The Real Estate Market for the first 8 months of 2015

Comparing the first eight months of 2015 to the same period in 2014 closed sales have increased by 19.7%.  Resultantly the average sale and median prices have increased by 8.8% and 17.9% respectively. This brings the average sales price throughout Coos County to $181,700 and the median price to $165,000.  Of course these numbers are of the greatest concern for anyone who is actively looking to buyer sell in the immediate future.

The amount of available housing inventory remains fairly consistent over the past three months ranging from 5.8 months of inventory in June to 6.3 months worth in August. This is enough to make the existing inventory remain competitive yet not so small that buyers get into a bidding contest as they seem to be doing in the metropolitan areas.

One thing more alarming to the immediate future buyer or seller is that the Federal Reserve appears to be going to increase their lending rates within the next few months.

Governments have two types of policy tools they can sort of use as jumper cables to kick start the economy, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Fiscal policy relates to the things the government can, in terms of spending or tax reduction, help to move the economy.   Monetary policy refers to the ability of the government to influence or modify the money supply. Currently the Federal Reserve rate is at 0% which inhibits them from lowering the interest rate in the event of a difficult economy. Monetary policy directly affects mortgage rates. The rate that the lenders can borrow at affects the rate that they will loan at. So once again it is commonly thought that mortgage rates will increase soon.

The Real Estate Market for the first 7 months of 2015

The market in Coos County continues to improve with July seeing a large increase in pending sales over June of 2015 with accepted offers by 19.1% over last month.  This was the best July since 2005.  The closed sales declined from June by 9.2% however potential closings are really stacking up and already closed sales have increased by 22% over the first 7 months of 2014.  The average sale price continues to increase by 6.8% and the median price by 13.6% year to date. Currently the average sales price through July is $178,900.

The amount of available inventory moved up slightly to 6.4 months from 5.8 months in June.  This movement is not enough in a given month to be significant as a long term indicator. These numbers will facilitate month by month.  Remember that the number of months of available inventory indicates, at the current rate of sales it would take 6.4 months to sell everything that is currently on the market if no new properties were added. 

Markets aren’t just local, they’re “hyperlocal”. Prices may be up or down in your State but completely different in your local area. Months of inventory on the market are the best predictor of price changes.  Even though the National Association of Realtors forecasts that existing home sales and prices will increase, the real issue is how much inventory is on the market in your local market area. If there are only two months of inventory in your market, chances are good that prices will increase.  On the other hand if there are 10-12 or more months of inventory, your area will stay the same or possibly decrease.

With the current trends in Coos County expect that the sale prices will increase. The total time on the market from listing date to accepting an offer has reduced about 1% to 172 days from about 180 days.  This I would project will reduce more if as I project, the market continues to improve.

The Real Estate Market for the first 6 months of 2015

The 2015 Real Estate Market on the southern Oregon coast has seen a tremendous improvement over the same period in 2014.  Beginning in 2011 this market has continuously seen improved growth in closed sales and an increase in median sales price. (the median being the mid-point of all real estate sales)  Year to date in 2015 the number of closed sales has increased by 27% and the median sale price has increased by 14.2%, over the same period in 2014. 

Consequently the number of available properties (listings) has decreased by 3.7% indicating that the benefit to the potential buyers, which they enjoyed for a long period of time, had really slowed down. The general rule of thumb is that when the inventory drops to where it would take 6 months, at the current rate of sales, to market that number of properties, neither the buyer nor the seller has any particular advantage.  We are now at 5.8 months of inventory.  This is the first time in many years, probably since 2007. 

Total time on the market has not changed significantly and remains in the area of 180 days.  This is generally the result of a larger inventory on the market, lack of enough new construction and the spread between the listed price and the eventual sales price. As the market continues to improve I would expect this length of time to be reduced.

Here at Century 21 Best Realty, Inc. we have been fortunate and have seen the number of units closed increase by 14% over the same period last year and the commissions increase by nearly 38%.  We are looking forward to continue to ride this growth cycle throughout the year.  The Century 21 brand name and the programs to support this digital type of marketing appear to give us some significant advantages. No other brand seems to have the amount of support systems for the Brokers that Century 21 does.